Intrinsic Value Analysis For Forecasting The Expected Shares In Investment Decision With Dividend Discounted Model And Price Earning Ratio

Januari Ayu Fridayani


Abstract. The purpose of this study was to determine the intrinsic value of the stock's four largest banks nationwide that BBRI, BMRI, BBNI and BBCA which is then compared with the results of forecasting stock value the expected as well as knowing both methods were used which one produces an intrinsic value that is closer to the value of investors' expectations. The analytical methods used are discounted cash flow approach to dividend discounted model (DDM) and relative valuation approach price-to-earning ratio (PER). Data were obtained from financial statements and fact book for the period 2011-2016, while the value of shares expected by investors using pivot point approach with annual stock data for one year. The study will compare the results with the results of forecasting the intrinsic value of stock value ekspektasian to acquire stock price conditions and recommended methods.The results showed that the method of DDM stock BBRI, BMRI, BBNI and BBCA are undervalued, then the method PER BBRI, BMRI and BBNI are undervalued while stocks BBCA are overvalued. The most recommended method because it comes close to the expected value investor is the method DDM.


Keywords: Intrinsic value, dividend discounted model, price earning ratio, undervalue, overvalue.

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